MakiBox A6 Update - Over 1000 Shipped

2022-03-10 16:05 by Jonathan Buford (comments: 60)

building steam

tl_files/img/2014_03_10/makibox_boxes.jpg

The lab is now a machine that takes in parts and turns them into boxes ready to send out to our eagerly waiting customers.

Over the last month, we have shipped over 600 units, and have been picking up the pace even more with an additional full time technician to put together the bits that get soldered. 

Based on this production output rate, we can see that we will wrap up all existing orders in the next two months. The orders from 2012 have been cleared out, and we are working on ones from mid 2013 now. We expect to have all 2013 orders wrapped up within April, with the 2014 orders finished shortly after that. 

This is based on an independently maintained public record of what has shipped: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0Ajfa4itquLDadDUwRUh3cnR1ZzFWUU94OGtONGc0OUE&f=true&noheader=true&gid=2

The team here is ecstatic to have hit this milestone, and is looking forward to being able to focus more on helping you use your MakiBoxes than answering when you will receive it. 

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Comment by Thomas Savage | 2022-03-10

yayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

Comment by Thomas Savage | 2022-03-10

yayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

Comment by Thomas Savage | 2022-03-10

yayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

Comment by Dan Neely | 2022-03-10

Is there an easy way to find out exactly when my order shipped? From store account checks I know it shipped sometime between early February and early this month; but combined with 6-8 week slow boat shipping that leaves me with a very wide range of possible ETAs. The track button next to the HK Post + DHL tracking number doesn't provide any information at all.

Comment by Richard Wackerbarth | 2022-03-10

"Over the last month, we have shipped over 600 units, "

Oh, I wish that were true. Unfortunately, the data that you reference does not support that number.

As of the current posting, you have shipped only 412 units in the last 30 days. And the largest number shipped within any 30 day period is 518, a number that reflects the edge effect of the fact that the number reflects weekly "batches" rather than a continuous flow.

Things ARE getting better. But why must you always exaggerate your production?

Comment by Richard Wackerbarth | 2022-03-10

"Over the last month, we have shipped over 600 units, "

Oh, I wish that were true. Unfortunately, the data that you reference does not support that number.

As of the current posting, you have shipped only 412 units in the last 30 days. And the largest number shipped within any 30 day period is 518, a number that reflects the edge effect of the fact that the number reflects weekly "batches" rather than a continuous flow.

Things ARE getting better. But why must you always exaggerate your production?

Comment by Jon Buford | 2022-03-10

@Richard - I'm seeing 619 from February until March. February was a short month, and I should have posted this information a few days ago, so I'm just looking at from the last batch to around the same time last month. So, 600 in the last month (approximate) is a fair and not distorted number. Closer than your 412 units, which is quite shy of the actual amount. No exaggerations, just being realistic. Would you rather me quote the weighted average over the last month or something more statistic? 

Comment by Jon Buford | 2022-03-10

@Dan - The tracking number only works once the parcels are landed and through local customs. Unfortunately, there is no tracking number for the consolidated freight type of service.

Comment by Richard Wackerbarth | 2022-03-11

@Jon,

The number at the end of January stood at 503.
Today's number is 1122.
I assume that it is from those numbers that you derive your 619 figure.

However, that represents 38 days -- significantly more than a month.

Whatever the true rate, be it the (approximately) 100 per week that I estimate, or more like 150 per week that your number represents, I think that you will agree that the "batch reporting" effect can significantly distort the value when the batch size is a significant fraction of the total units involved in the computation.

I argue that a reasonable model would assume that units are produced at a (near) constant rate, but that the total is reported only on a (perhaps irregular) periodic basis.

In order to estimate the production rate, we should declare data points when (and only when) the batches are reported and that the rate is computed by taking the ratio of the change in units and the change in time since some initial reference point.

Thus, our ending data point would be 1121 on 3/6. A starting data point would be 693 on 2/4 or 504 on 1/17.

Those endpoints yield annualized production rates of 5207 and 4691, respectively.

Taking 1/12 of that as the "monthly" rate, we get 434 and 391.

We should be getting some new data posted in the next few days. Let's see how that changes the observations.

Comment by Joshua Frye | 2022-03-11

@ Richard

Nobody gives a poop.

@Jon
Nice work. Keep the milestones coming, you seem to be in the groove.